The Future of Mathew Stafford

It's just about NFL Draft time and The Nudge has just completed his Nudge Mock Draft 2009 Edition. But it got me to thinking, what is the future of the next number one pick in the NFL Draft Matt Stafford going to be like.
Stafford has taken a lot of heat this week after allegdedly storming out of an interview with the San francisco 49ers management staff. The report is that the team said he needs counseling to deal with the after affects of his parents divorce. Staffords ability as a quarterback has also come into heavy question as of late.

To me, this has all the makings of a very serious train wreck down the road. I don't see any silver lining anywhere near Stafford in the next few years. If he's drafted by the Lions, which in all likelyhood is about to happen, Stafford will take over the helm of the worst NFL team in the history of the league. And everyone seriously doubts that he's going to be the Messiah that they need.

"I think Stafford's a talented player. ... But maybe he shouldn't play right away," Ex-NFL GM Charlie Casserly is reported as saying. "Carson Palmer didn't play his rookie year. Daunte Culpepper didn't play his rookie year. Donovan McNabb didn't play until late into his rookie year."

Following the debacle with San Fran, Head Coach Mike Singletary is quoted as saying:

"If you're going to look at drafting a guy in the first round, and you're going to pay him millions of dollars, and asking him about a divorce about his parents,if that's going to be an issue, uhhh, then you know what, maybe he doesn't belong here."

Even ESPN, which normally would be throwing praise and accolades at the probable first quarterback taken (remember what they used to say about Ryan Leaf) has jumped on the pile. I think that this could all be attributed to the sudden success if Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Two players who were'nt pegged as having Stafford like ability, but were able to jump right into starting roles in the NFL in their rookie year and succeed. In essence, The Ryan-Flacco effect is setting the bar way too high for Stafford to ever really be able to be viewed as ever being a success. Because of bad timing, Stafford's career is doomed before it even begins. I could be wrong on this one, but I seriously doubt.

Just to Nudge it up around here, here is Knowshon's girl "The Gymnast"

ESPN:

The book on Stafford

Every potential No. 1 pick faces public scrutiny, but Stafford hasencountered unusually vocal opposition from some well-regarded draft analysts. ESPN's Todd McShay and NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock have been two of his most vocal critics. Both note his rifle arm but say Stafford presents enough deficiencies to question his value at No. 1 overall.

Matt Ryan's breakout rookie season has set the bar high for incoming quarterbacks. During an appearance on Dan Patrick's syndicated radio show last month, Mayock said Stafford had "elite-level talent" but was too inconsistent at Georgia to merit the No. 1 commitment.

"I look at [Stafford] and I go, 'I just don't get it,'" Mayock said.

"Sometimes he looks like an All-Pro quarterback, and other times he looks very pedestrian. ... You put the tape on and he looks like two different kids too often. And if your talent level is at a certain point, it should be a much more consistent level of play."

Steve Muench, who works with McShay at Scouts Inc., believes one of Stafford's biggest problems is the inevitable comparisons to Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons drafted Ryan with the No. 3 overall pick last year and watched as he earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

"Matthew Stafford is not Matt Ryan," Muench said. "Matt Ryan was clearly NFL-ready. A lot of us thought that last year and we said so.

"He was polished and ready to go with the
total package from a mental standpoint. Stafford is by far the best quarterback prospect available this year, but it's going to take him longer to develop. That means there are more variables and it'll take more time when teams don't really have time anymore. He has all the physical tools, but I don't think people believe he can step in and do what Matt Ryan did. Hence the questions."

The Lions' roaring debate Mayock suggests the Lions should take linebacker Aaron Curry or tackle Jason Smith rather than risk their future on Stafford. Many consider Curry the best defensive playmaker in the draft, and Smith could solidify the left tackle spot for the next 10 years.

But neither of those routes is risk-free from the Lions' perspective.

Because they have established starters at both outside linebacker spots,
Curry would have to play out of position as a middle linebacker in their 4-3 scheme. And Smith might not make as much sense for the Lions as tackle Jake Long made for Miami last year at No. 1 overall, according to Muench.

With no obvious decision to be made, the Lions will return to the central question: How badly do they need -- or want -- a franchise quarterback in this draft?

Since 1970, these are the quarterbacks that have been taken with the first pick in the draft.
1970: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh)
1971: Jim Plunkett (New England)
1975: Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta)
1983: John Elway (Baltimore)
1987: Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay)
1989: Troy Aikman (Dallas)
1990: Jeff George (Indianapolis)
1993: Drew Bledsoe (New England)
1998: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)
1999: Tim Couch (Cleveland)
2001: Michael Vick (Atlanta)
2002: David Carr (Houston)
2003: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati)
2004: Eli Manning (San Diego)
2005: Alex Smith (San Francisco)
2007: JaMarcus Russell (Oakland)


If I had to put money on it right now, I would say that Stafford's career will resemble David Carr's more than John Elway's